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- Is there volatility in tourism demand?Publication . Mendes, Alexandra Sofia; Brochado, Ana; Menezes, RuiModelling tourism demand is essential when tourism policymakers plan tourism activities. The tourism industry is extremely susceptible to specific events’ effects, so good models must be found that reflect volatility. This study sought to review systematically the recent literature on this topic, specifically targeting models used to analyse tourism demand. The literature reveals some determinants of volatility in the tourism industry, such as income, gross domestic product and exchange rate, as well as crime, major events, big shocks, epidemics, weather conditions and the absence or existence of direct flights. Moreover, the review showed that modelling volatility is an emergent approach used in the analysis of tourism demand time series. This study’s results reveal pathways for the use of volatility models in tourism demand studies, which will allow managers and decision makers to adapt policies to deal with the volatility associated with tourism.
- Manual de boas práticas e sustentabilidade no turismoPublication . Almeida, Paulo; Eurico, Sofia; Almeida, Sérgio; Oliveira, Fernanda; Jorge, João Paulo; Ramos, Dulcineia; Oliveira, Verónica; Simões, Ana Raquel; Borges, Patrícia; Malheiros, Cátia; Caetano, Marta; Amorim, Daniela; Viana, Ana Sofia; Coelho, Júlio; Sousa, Ana Elisa; Lourenço, Paulo; Rafael, Célia; Almeida, Nuno; Fonseca, Júlia; Schön, Michael; Martins, Rui; Dias, Francisco; Cardoso, Lucília; Mendes, Alexandra; Bento, Carla; Elias-Almeida, Anabela; Varela, Luciana; Varela, Jorge; Santos, Luís Lima; Gomes, Conceição; Brasão, Inês; Baptista, Pedro
- Volatility of city tourism demandPublication . Mendes, Alexandra Sofia Marinho da SilvaThe main objectives of this research are to identify, through a systematic literature review, the potential benefits of the use of volatility models in tourism, to study the volatility of tourism demand in cities and to compare models of volatility between different destinations and source markets. The three cities analysed in Portugal were Coimbra, Lisbon and Oporto and the source markets that were studied were the domestic market, the total overnight stays, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and other non-specified countries. The systematic review of the literature was carried out in order to identify, in a temporal perspective, the use of each methodology, variables used, data frequencies, temporal window, type of territories and geographic object of each study. The semantic analysis of the state of the art was also a methodology used. After a preliminary analysis of the time series, models that literature indicates as more suitable to estimate the volatility were used, namely, models of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity: ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models. The most suitable models for each source market, in each city, were identified, as well as the existence of asymmetries face to positive and negative shocks, their magnitude and their persistence. Different models of volatility were identified in each city for each source market, as well as, different types of persistence of volatility, in each market and city, and different magnitude in face of good news and bad news, which strengthens the need to adjust the modelling of tourism demand for each market and, within a country, at a more detailed territorial scale. The use of volatility models is quite recent in tourism demand modelling and had not yet been applied in cities in Portugal, for which, despite the growing importance in terms of tourism, there are no studies of modelling focusing on the tourism demand. Modelling tourism demand is essential when tourism policymakers plan tourism activities. The tourism industry may be extremely sensitive to specific events’ effects, so good models must be found that reflect volatility that varies within each city and for each source market and policies must be adapted to each of the source/destination pairs.
- The impact of pandemic crisis on the restaurant businessPublication . Madeira, Arlindo; Palrão, Teresa; Mendes, Alexandra SofiaThe COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for a health crisis and, at the same time, for a sharp drop in activities of economic sustainability, particularly in tourism management, and has consequences in most countries that are still difficult to measure. The objective of this research is to identify restaurant entrepreneurs’ perceptions about the future, government measures, strategies they will apply, and lessons learned for the future after the mandatory lockdown of restaurants and hospitality establishments related to pandemics. The framework was developed through content analysis with line-by-line coding applied to questionnaires collected online from Portuguese restaurant entrepreneurs. The results reveal the existence of common concerns to all entrepreneurs in the restaurant business for the post-pandemic period, about the measures that the governments should implement, and about the strategies and lessons learned for the future. Resilience in face of the future, fear of a lack of appropriate government measures, strategies designed for markets with greater immediate availability, and the creation of working capital are visible concerns in the restaurant business.