Is there volatility in tourism demand?

Mendes, Alexandra Sofia; Brochado, Ana; Menezes, Rui

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/7485

Use this identifier to reference this record.

Name:	Description:	Size:	Format:
Mendes et al_2017_Is there volatility.pdf		280.75 KB	Adobe PDF	Download

Send Feedback

Authors

Mendes, Alexandra Sofia

Brochado, Ana

Menezes, Rui

Abstract(s)

Modelling tourism demand is essential when tourism policymakers plan tourism activities. The tourism industry is extremely susceptible to specific events’ effects, so good models must be found that reflect volatility. This study sought to review systematically the recent literature on this topic, specifically targeting models used to analyse tourism demand. The literature reveals some determinants of volatility in the tourism industry, such as income, gross domestic product and exchange rate, as well as crime, major events, big shocks, epidemics, weather conditions and the absence or existence of direct flights. Moreover, the review showed that modelling volatility is an emergent approach used in the analysis of tourism demand time series. This study’s results reveal pathways for the use of volatility models in tourism demand studies, which will allow managers and decision makers to adapt policies to deal with the volatility associated with tourism.

Keywords

Systematic review Tourism demand Forecasting Volatility Semantic analysis

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/7485

Citation

Mendes, A.S., Brochado, A., & Menezes, R. (2017). Is there volatility in tourism demand? Proceedings Book of the IX International Tourism Congress (ITC’17), 29-30 November 2017, Peniche, Portugal