Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics

Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Martins, J.; Stollenwerk, N.

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/14774

Use this identifier to reference this record.

Name:	Description:	Size:	Format:
PS-10889.pdf		2.04 MB	Adobe PDF	Download

Send Feedback

Authors

Abstract(s)

In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the avail- able data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios.