Publication
Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics
| datacite.subject.sdg | 03:Saúde de Qualidade | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 07:Energias Renováveis e Acessíveis | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 11:Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis | |
| dc.contributor.author | Aguiar, M. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Kooi, B.W. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Martins, J. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Stollenwerk, N. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-11-28T12:26:04Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-11-28T12:26:04Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
| dc.description.abstract | In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the avail- able data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios. | eng |
| dc.description.sponsorship | We would like to thank Bernard Cazelles, Ecole Normale Sup´erieure, Paris, France for providing the available DHF incidence data in Thailand. Yoshiro Nagao, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine in Japan, and Katia Koelle, Biology Department of Duke University in the USA for providing the extended Thailand DHF incidence data, Francisco Lemos and Sonia Diniz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, and Scott Halstead, Bethesda, Maryland, for detailed information about dengue epidemiology. Ma´ıra Aguiar also acknowledges the financial support from the FCT grant with reference SFRH/BD/43236/2008. This work has been further supported by the European Union under FP7 in the EPIWORK project and the Portuguese FCT project PTDC/MAT/115168/2009. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1051/mmnp/20127301 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0973-5348 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1760-6101 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/14774 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | |
| dc.publisher | EDP Sciences | |
| dc.relation | PTDC/MAT/115168/2009 | |
| dc.relation.hasversion | https://www.mmnp-journal.org/articles/mmnp/abs/2012/03/mmnp201273p1/mmnp201273p1.html | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject | Dengue fever epidemiology | |
| dc.subject | Multi-strain model | |
| dc.subject | External infections | |
| dc.subject | Deterministic skeleton | |
| dc.subject | Stochastic system | |
| dc.title | Scaling of Stochasticity in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics | eng |
| dc.type | journal article | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.citation.endPage | 11 | |
| oaire.citation.issue | 3 | |
| oaire.citation.startPage | 1 | |
| oaire.citation.title | Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena | |
| oaire.citation.volume | 7 | |
| oaire.version | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |
| person.familyName | Gouveia Martins | |
| person.givenName | José Maria | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | 9015-9D8C-93DF | |
| person.identifier.gsid | 43461781600 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-0556-7861 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 29fc5be8-b5a2-489c-92d3-c0efe7e57892 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 29fc5be8-b5a2-489c-92d3-c0efe7e57892 |