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Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset

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Abstract(s)

The COVID-19 crisis increased unemployment all over the World, with significant regional heterogeneity. This paper intends to analyze this territorial heterogeneity for the Portuguese case and investigate which regional factors complement personal and job characteristics in explaining individual vulnerability to COVID-19 unemployment. By considering personal, job and regional dimensions, we extended the literature and provided a more comprehensive understanding of this new phenomenon in the immediate and medium-term. Furthermore, this knowledge is essential to support policy suggestions for quick and effective action in preventing job losses in the current and future crises. Detailed information on all individuals that lost their jobs in Portugal 1 year after (and before) the COVID-19 outset was used to estimate three logit models that compare the odds of losing a job after and during the pandemic. Significant territorial heterogeneity of the COVID-19 impact on unemployment is obtained. Along with personal and job characteristics, we conclude that regional characteristics are essential for explaining individual vulnerabilities. In particular, workers are more prompted to lose their jobs if they live in regions with higher population densities, lower pre-crisis unemployment, and more dependable international flow. Conversely, individual and regional human capital investment contributes to protecting employment, revealing the existence of external effects.

Description

Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the Institute of Employment and Professional Training and Professor Pedro Martins for the authorization to use their databases, which were essential for the investigation. This paper is financed by National Funds of the FCT– Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology within the project «UIDB/04928/2020». Funding: The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the UIDB/04928/2020 - FCT– Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Keywords

Job losses Covid-19 Regional effects Individual vulnerability Human capital

Citation

Lopes AS, Sargento A. Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset. Int Reg Sci Rev. 2023 Mar 12:01600176231160486. doi: 10.1177/01600176231160486. PMCID: PMC10009500.

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