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Publication
Factors influencing sustainability of the Public Pension System in Portugal: a perspective of certified accountants
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Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo perceber quais os fatores que, na
perspetiva dos contabilistas certificados mais influenciam a sustentabilidade do sistema
público de pensões em Portugal, nomeadamente demográficos, sociais, macroeconómicos,
financeiros e às politicas governativas destinadas a fazer face à redução do rendimento na
idade da reforma. Tal posiciona-se como significativo, já que os contabilistas certificados com
a sua experiencia e formação em contabilidade, finanças e gestão de riscos, são os
profissionais a serem consultados, para assegurar que se implementem boas práticas
financeiras e operacionais que favoreçam a sustentabilidade do sistema público de pensões
a longo prazo.
A temática da sustentabilidade financeira do sistema público de pensões em Portugal tem sido
amplamente debatida e assume particular importância face à evolução demográfica e o actual
contexto económico, causando pressão sobre o financiamento do sistema, cujo objectivo é
garantir prestações em substituição dos rendimentos auferidos em determinadas
contingências, funcionando em sistema de repartição. De modo a melhorar a compreensão
deste tema, iremos analisar a evolução do sistema público de pensões em Portugal, cuja
história se confunde com a história evolutiva da Segurança Social, as principais características
e as reformas mais recentes. Analisaremos também a pensão de velhice no seu propósito.
Adotaremos uma metodologia de análise quantitativa, recorrendo à construção de quatro
modelos de regressão linear para determinar quais os fatores que mais influenciam o sistema
público de pensões em Portugal, na perspetiva dos contabilistas certificados, concluíndo que
são os fatores financeiros. A variável fatores financeiros é composta por: financiamento da SS
via orçamento do Estado, contribuições das entidades empregadoras, contribuições dos
trabalhadores e capitalização individual, sendo este o conjunto de variáveis que mais
influência positivamente a sustentabilidade do sistema publico de pensões em Portugal. Os
efeitos demográficos migratórios, o fator de sustentabilidade aplicado às reformas
antecipadas (corte aplicado) e a taxa de crescimento real dos salários, são as variáveis que
se destacam nos quatro modelos
The main objective of this dissertation is to understand which factors, from the perspective of certified accountants, most influence the sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal, namely demographic, social, macroeconomic, financial and government policies aimed at addressing the reduction in income at retirement age. This is positioned as significant, since certified accountants, with their experience and training in accounting, finance and risk management, are the professionals to be consulted to ensure that good financial and operational practices are implemented that favour the sustainability of the public pension system in the long term. The topic of financial sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal has been widely debated and assumes particular importance given demographic evolution and the current economic context, causing pressure on the financing of the system, whose objective is to guarantee benefits, in replacement of income earned, in the event of certain contingencies, operating in a retribution system. To improve understanding of this topic, we will analyse the evolution of the public pension system in Portugal, whose history is intertwined with the evolutionary history of Social Security, the main characteristics and the most recent reforms. We will also analyse the old-age pension in its purpose. We will adopt a quantitative analysis methodology, using the construction of four linear regression models to determine which factors most influence the public pension system in Portugal, concluding that it is the financial factors that, from the perspective of certified accountants, most influence the public pension system in Portugal. The variable financial factors made up of SS financing through the State budget, employers contributions, workers contributions and individual capitalisation, are the set of variables that most positive influence on the sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal. The demographic migratory effects, the sustainability factor applied to early retirements (cut applied) and the real wage growth rate are the variables that stand out in the four models.
The main objective of this dissertation is to understand which factors, from the perspective of certified accountants, most influence the sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal, namely demographic, social, macroeconomic, financial and government policies aimed at addressing the reduction in income at retirement age. This is positioned as significant, since certified accountants, with their experience and training in accounting, finance and risk management, are the professionals to be consulted to ensure that good financial and operational practices are implemented that favour the sustainability of the public pension system in the long term. The topic of financial sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal has been widely debated and assumes particular importance given demographic evolution and the current economic context, causing pressure on the financing of the system, whose objective is to guarantee benefits, in replacement of income earned, in the event of certain contingencies, operating in a retribution system. To improve understanding of this topic, we will analyse the evolution of the public pension system in Portugal, whose history is intertwined with the evolutionary history of Social Security, the main characteristics and the most recent reforms. We will also analyse the old-age pension in its purpose. We will adopt a quantitative analysis methodology, using the construction of four linear regression models to determine which factors most influence the public pension system in Portugal, concluding that it is the financial factors that, from the perspective of certified accountants, most influence the public pension system in Portugal. The variable financial factors made up of SS financing through the State budget, employers contributions, workers contributions and individual capitalisation, are the set of variables that most positive influence on the sustainability of the public pension system in Portugal. The demographic migratory effects, the sustainability factor applied to early retirements (cut applied) and the real wage growth rate are the variables that stand out in the four models.
Description
Keywords
Sustentabilidade Sistema de pensões Segurança social Fatores financeiros Contabilistas certificados