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- Is the Financial Report Quality Important in the Default Prediction? SME Portuguese Construction Sector EvidencePublication . Costa, Magali; Lisboa, Inês; Gameiro, AnaThis work analyses whether financial information quality is relevant to explaining firms’ probability of default. A financial default prediction model for SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) is presented, which includes not only traditional measures but also financial reporting quality (FRQ) measures. FRQ influences the decision-making due to its impact on financial information, which has repercussions on the accounting ratios’ informativeness. A panel data of 1560 Portuguese SMEs in the construction sector, from 2012 to 2018, is analysed. First, firms are classified as default or compliant using an ex-ante criterion which allows us to identify signs of financial constraints in advance. Then, the stepwise method is employed to identify which variables are more relevant to explain the default probability. Results show that FRQ measures, namely accruals quality and timeliness, impact firms’ defaulting, supporting their relevance in predicting financial difficulties. Finally, using a logit approach, the accuracy of the model increased when FRQ variables were included. Results are confirmed using “new age” classifiers, namely the random forest methodology. This work is not only relevant to the extant financial distress literature but has also relevant implications for practice since stakeholders can understand the impact of financial reporting quality to prevent additional risks.
- Analysis of Family SMEs Default Risk: the Portuguese CasePublication . Lisboa, Inês; Costa, Magali; Santos, FilipaThis work aims to study the default risk of family SMEs (small and medium enterprises) in Portugal, more specifically in the Leiria region. For this purpose, a panel data of 2,658 firms over the period 2012-2017 is analyzed. Using an ex-ante classification of defaulting, results suggest that there are more compliant firms and the number of defaulting firms have decreased over the period analyzed. Then, using a logit regression technique and six variables to predict default obtained through the stepwise methodology, results show that defaulting firms compared to compliant firms are usually younger, with higher difficulties in generating return and in being efficient, and more indebted. The Z’-score model was used as a robustness test, and results suggest that this model is inaccurate to the present reality and this specific sample. Therefore, new coefficients were estimated to increase the model’s efficiency. The proposed and the modified Z’-score models have an accuracy of 88.74% and 85.49%, respectively.