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- Flying Between State and Market:How Much of TAP should be Privatised?Publication . Mendes, Helena Sofia de Sousa Callebaut; Jorge, Maria João da SilvaThis dissertation investigates the relationship between state ownership and airline performance, with a particular focus on the implications for the privatisation of TAP Air Portugal. While existing literature generally associates privatisation with improved firm performance, limited attention has been given to how different levels of state ownership affect performance outcomes. Grounded in property rights, public choice, and agency theories, the study adopts a panel-data econometric approach using a sample of airlines with diverse ownership structures, including Ryanair, British Airways, Lufthansa, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Air France, Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS), LOT Polish Airlines, and Alitalia/ITA Airways. The dataset covers the period 2004–2024 and is constructed from airline annual reports, incorporating both financial and operational performance indicators. The empirical results suggest a generally negative association between state ownership and financial performance, although this relationship is not consistently robust across specifications. Importantly, the findings indicate that the ownership–performance relationship is non-linear. While financial performance exhibits a U-shaped pattern, cost efficiency, measured through cost per available seat kilometre (CASK), follows an inverted U-shaped relationship. These results highlight that the effects of state ownership differ across performance dimensions. While financial indicators show limited and inconsistent responses, cost efficiency displays a more systematic non-linear relationship with ownership structure. Overall, the findings do not support the existence of a clearly defined optimal ownership threshold. Instead, they indicate that the impact of ownership depends on both its level and the broader governance and institutional context. For TAP Air Portugal, the results suggest that increasing private ownership may improve long-term financial sustainability, although outcomes depend critically on governance structures, managerial autonomy, and exposure to market discipline.