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Efeitos do mismatch educacional nos salários no mercado de trabalho português: uma análise dos Quadros de Pessoal (2010–2023)
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Abstract(s)
O presente trabalho examina a relação entre a qualificação dos trabalhadores e os rendimentos reais no mercado de trabalho português, centrando-se no fenómeno do mismatch educacional, nomeadamente a discrepância entre o nível de escolaridade do indivíduo e o requerido pela sua profissão, e analisa as suas implicações salariais. Utilizando dados longitudinais dos Quadros de Pessoal entre 2010 e 2023, a investigação combina duas abordagens metodológicas complementares: regressões lineares anuais com base em dados cross-sectional, focando mais nas diferenças salariais entre trabalhadores, e modelos de dados em painel com efeitos fixos, permitindo captar variações temporais e controlar a heterogeneidade não observada dos indivíduos.
As variáveis analisadas incluem fatores demográficos, de capital humano, empresariais, regionais, setoriais e contratuais, beneficiando da utilização dos Quadros de Pessoal, uma base de dados administrativa que cobre todos os trabalhadores do setor privado em Portugal. A dimensão desta base permite trabalhar com milhões de observações anuais, assegurando representatividade, bem como uma grande riqueza em termos de diversidade de variáveis disponíveis.
Os resultados evidenciam que a escolaridade, o mismatch educacional, a produtividade e a dimensão da empresa são determinantes salariais robustos, enquanto características como género apresentam efeitos mais complexos e dependentes do modelo estimado. A comparação entre métodos mostra que o modelo em painel tende a reduzir a magnitude dos coeficientes. Esta diferença decorre não apenas do controlo de heterogeneidade não observada através dos efeitos fixos, mas também do facto de o painel captar a evolução do rendimento do mesmo indivíduo ao longo do tempo, proporcionando uma análise dinâmica das relações entre variáveis.
Este trabalho contribui para o aprofundamento do conhecimento sobre desigualdades salariais associadas ao mismatch educacional em Portugal, fornecendo evidência empírica útil para o desenho de políticas públicas que promovam uma melhor adequação entre qualificações e funções laborais.
This study examines the relationship between workers’ qualifications and real earnings in the Portuguese labor market, focusing on the phenomenon of educational mismatch, namely the discrepancy between an individual’s level of education and that required for their occupation, and analyses its wage implications. Using longitudinal data from “Quadros de Pessoal” between 2010 and 2023, the research combines two complementary methodological approaches: annual linear regressions based on cross-sectional data, focusing more on wage differences between workers, and panel data models with fixed effects, which capture temporal variations and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity. The variables analyzed include individual, firm, regional and sectoral-level factors, benefiting from the use of “Quadros de Pessoal”, an administrative dataset that covers virtually all employees in the private sector in Portugal. The large size of this dataset allows for the use of millions of annual observations, ensuring representativeness, as well as a wide diversity of available variables. The results show that education, educational mismatch, productivity and firm size are robust determinants of wages, while characteristics such as gender present more complex effects that depend on the model estimated. The comparison between methods shows that the panel model tends to reduce the magnitude of the coefficients. This difference arises not only from controlling unobserved heterogeneity through fixed effects, but also from the fact that the panel setting captures the evolution of the same individual’s earnings over time, providing a dynamic analysis of the relationships between variables. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of wage inequalities associated with educational mismatch in Portugal, providing empirical evidence that can inform public policies aimed at improving the alignment between qualifications and job requirements.
This study examines the relationship between workers’ qualifications and real earnings in the Portuguese labor market, focusing on the phenomenon of educational mismatch, namely the discrepancy between an individual’s level of education and that required for their occupation, and analyses its wage implications. Using longitudinal data from “Quadros de Pessoal” between 2010 and 2023, the research combines two complementary methodological approaches: annual linear regressions based on cross-sectional data, focusing more on wage differences between workers, and panel data models with fixed effects, which capture temporal variations and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity. The variables analyzed include individual, firm, regional and sectoral-level factors, benefiting from the use of “Quadros de Pessoal”, an administrative dataset that covers virtually all employees in the private sector in Portugal. The large size of this dataset allows for the use of millions of annual observations, ensuring representativeness, as well as a wide diversity of available variables. The results show that education, educational mismatch, productivity and firm size are robust determinants of wages, while characteristics such as gender present more complex effects that depend on the model estimated. The comparison between methods shows that the panel model tends to reduce the magnitude of the coefficients. This difference arises not only from controlling unobserved heterogeneity through fixed effects, but also from the fact that the panel setting captures the evolution of the same individual’s earnings over time, providing a dynamic analysis of the relationships between variables. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of wage inequalities associated with educational mismatch in Portugal, providing empirical evidence that can inform public policies aimed at improving the alignment between qualifications and job requirements.
Description
Keywords
Qualificação Salários Mismatch educacional Dados em painel Regressão linear Mercado de trabalho português