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Regional planning insights from a portuguese bi-regional input-output model – the potential impact of agri food industry
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
In Portugal, the public debate at regional level is typically engaged in the discussion of
asymmetries amongst the ‘interior’ and the ‘coast’. What is often discussed, with political and
social relevance, is the extent of the interior’s delay (in terms of development) comparatively
to the coastal region, and into what extent the dynamics of the economy, or eventually the
‘bias’ introduced by public policies, contributes to this drawback. Interestingly, however, the
Portuguese regional science has miscarried this debate, largely on the grounds that the official
statistics do not include this cleavage. Indeed, the design of the NUTS II in Portugal splits the
country horizontally, forgetting the vertical gap that splits the interior regions from the coastal
ones. The first objective of this paper is therefore to refocus the debate - in scientific terms –
on the actual territorial disparity in Portugal: the contrast Coast-Interior.
Accordingly, this paper starts by presenting the structure of a bi-regional Input-Output (IO)
model for the Portuguese Economy. We consider a rectangular IO model (431 products by
125 industries), decomposing the Portuguese economy into two regions with comparable
territorial sizes (the Coastal Region, comprising 44% of the Portuguese continental area, and
the Interior Region). the model is ‘closed’ for the private consumption of households below
65 (which is supposed to be endogenous, as it depends on regional employment and therefore
on households’ earnings.
Multi-regional IO models describe the inter-sectoral dependencies both within the region and
between the regions. The main aim is then to assess how the effects of a shock that hits only
one of the regions are ‘distributed’ among the two regions. In particular, we intend to analyse
at a greater detail the role of the agri-food sector in the Interior Region.
Overall results illustrate the dependence of the Interior on the Coastal region, and that the
(positive or negative) effects of a shock that hits the Interior Region tend to leak significantly
to the Coastal Region, while an exogenous event in the Coastal Region tends to see its effects
relatively more contained within the region.Thus, this analysis can be particularly relevant to policy-makers in dealing with regional and territorial planning, as they are better informed about the root causes of some outcomes. Accordingly, a summary of the key lessons learned and a discussion of their policy relevance,
both at regional and national levels, will be offered.
Description
Comunicação apresentada em 19th APDR Congress on Place-Based Policies and Economic Recovery, Braga, 2013
Keywords
Agri-food industry Direct, indirect and induced effects Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis Inter-regional impacts