Publicação
Determinants of default prediction of the tourism sector: the case of Portuguese SMEs
| datacite.subject.fos | Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 08:Trabalho Digno e Crescimento Económico | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 09:Indústria, Inovação e Infraestruturas | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 12:Produção e Consumo Sustentáveis | |
| dc.contributor.author | Lisboa, Inês | |
| dc.contributor.author | Costa, Magali | |
| dc.contributor.author | Vouga, Beatriz | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-12-04T21:10:58Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-12-04T21:10:58Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-06-07 | |
| dc.description | Article number - 4001 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study intends to understand the determinants of default of tourism SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises), i.e., which aspects impact the probability that the company will not comply with its financial obligations. For this purpose, a panel data composed from a sample of 3,945 Portuguese SMEs, over ten years, was analysed. An ex-ante criterion (based on a set of financial ratios) was used to classify firms in default or compliant. This criterion helps to detect financial problems early. Then, in addition to the firm’s specific characteristics, which are the most used determinants, governance variables and macroeconomic factors were analysed in the firm's default prediction logit model. Results prove that the three groups of determinants are relevant to explain firms’ financial difficulties probability. The proposed model presents a success rate (predictive ability to classify as compliant and default) of around 80%. Furthermore, as a test of the robustness of the results, the sample period was divided into two subperiods (2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019) with different investment rates in the sector, allowing the conclusion that what determines the default of SMEs in the Portuguese tourism sector depends on the period analysed. | eng |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This research was supported by National Funds of the FCT – Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology within the project [UIDB/04928/2020]. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Lisboa, I., Costa, M., & Vouga, B. (2025). Determinants of default prediction of the tourism sector: the case of Portuguese SMEs. European Journal of Tourism Research, 40, 4001. https://doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v40i.3484 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.54055/ejtr.v40i.3484 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1314-0817 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1994-7658 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/14897 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | |
| dc.publisher | Varna University of Management | |
| dc.relation | Centre of Applied Research in Management and Economics | |
| dc.relation.hasversion | https://www.ejtr.vumk.eu/index.php/about/article/view/3484 | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | European Journal of Tourism Research | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject | Default | |
| dc.subject | Tourism sector | |
| dc.subject | SME | |
| dc.subject | Portugal | |
| dc.subject | Financial ratios | |
| dc.subject | Governance Variables | |
| dc.subject | Macroeconomic variables | |
| dc.subject | Logit | |
| dc.subject | Panel Data | |
| dc.title | Determinants of default prediction of the tourism sector: the case of Portuguese SMEs | eng |
| dc.type | journal article | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Centre of Applied Research in Management and Economics | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04928%2F2020/PT | |
| oaire.citation.endPage | 20 | |
| oaire.citation.startPage | 1 | |
| oaire.citation.title | European Journal of Tourism Research | |
| oaire.citation.volume | 40 | |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| oaire.version | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |
| person.familyName | Lisboa | |
| person.familyName | Costa | |
| person.givenName | Inês | |
| person.givenName | Magali | |
| person.identifier | 2201979 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | 5510-48F2-54DF | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0003-2802-2589 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0001-7738-504X | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 55582040700 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
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