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The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation - Implications for communications with European forest professionals

2020-11-23Journal article Open access
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datacite.subject.fosCiências Médicas::Outras Ciências Médicas
datacite.subject.fosCiências Naturais::Ciências da Terra e do Ambiente
datacite.subject.sdg07:Energias Renováveis e Acessíveis
datacite.subject.sdg09:Indústria, Inovação e Infraestruturas
datacite.subject.sdg11:Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis
dc.contributor.authorBlennow, K.
dc.contributor.authorPersson, J.
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Luísa M.S.
dc.contributor.authorBorys, A.
dc.contributor.authorDutcă, I.
dc.contributor.authorHynynen, J.
dc.contributor.authorJaneczko, E.
dc.contributor.authorLyubenova, M.
dc.contributor.authorMerganič, J.
dc.contributor.authorMerganičová, K.
dc.contributor.authorPeltoniemi, M.
dc.contributor.authorPetr, M.
dc.contributor.authorReboredo, F.
dc.contributor.authorVacchiano, G.
dc.contributor.authorReyer, C. P. O.
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-08T17:39:38Z
dc.date.available2025-07-08T17:39:38Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-23
dc.description.abstractBeliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of 'tipping point' behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipWe are grateful to all respondents to the questionnaires for their valuable input. We thank Gail Atkinson for reviewing the English language of a draft questionnaire.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis paper is based upon work from COST Action FP1304 PROFOUND (Towards Robust Projections of European Forests under Climate Change), supported by the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST—www.cost.eu). The research was supported by The Swedish Energy Agency [grant number 45808-1] (to K.B.); The Swedish Research Council Formas [grant number 2019-00165] (to K.B. and J.P.) and [grant number 259-2008-1718] (to J.P.); The Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences [grant number M14-0138:1] (to J.P.); Slovak Research and Development Agency, Projects No. APVV-18-0305 (J.M.); the grant ‘EVA4.0′, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE (K.M.); the German Federal Ministry of Educa tion and Research (BMBF, grant no. 73 01LS1201A1) (to C.P.O.R.); the German Federal Office for Agriculture and FOOD (BLE, grant no. 2816ERA06S) (to C.P.O.R.).
dc.identifier.citationK Blennow et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 114061. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa.
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/13578
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherIOP Publishing
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2fa
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Research Letters
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectdecision-making
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectvalue polarization
dc.subjectexpectation
dc.subjectblocked belief effect
dc.subjecttipping point behavior
dc.titleThe role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation - Implications for communications with European forest professionalseng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage10
oaire.citation.issue11
oaire.citation.startPage1
oaire.citation.titleEnvironmental Research Letters
oaire.citation.volume15
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameGonçalves
person.givenNameLuisa
person.identifier.ciencia-id9116-82A0-3060
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6265-8903
person.identifier.ridU-1298-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35145815700
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1ba44699-bdda-4e01-97ec-c02fe603afc5
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery1ba44699-bdda-4e01-97ec-c02fe603afc5

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Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of 'tipping point' behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.
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