A carregar...
2 resultados
Resultados da pesquisa
A mostrar 1 - 2 de 2
- A Near-Real-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National LevelPublication . Benali, Akli; Baldassarre, Giuseppe; Loureiro, Carlos; Briquemont, Florian; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Rossa, Carlos; Figueira, RuiLive fuel moisture content (LFMC) significantly influences fire activity and behavior over different spatial and temporal scales. The ability to estimate LFMC is important to improve our capability to predict when and where large wildfires may occur. Currently, there is a gap in providing reliable near-real-time LFMC estimates which can contribute to better operational decision-making. The objective of this work was to develop near-real-time LFMC estimates for operational purposes in Portugal. We modelled LFMC using Random Forests for Portugal using a large set of potential predictor variables. We validated the model and analyzed the relationships between estimated LFMC and both fire size and behavior. The model predicted LFMC with an R2 of 0.78 and an RMSE of 12.82%, and combined six variables: drought code, day-of-year and satellite vegetation indices. The model predicted well the temporal LFMC variability across most of the sampling sites. A clear relationship between LFMC and fire size was observed: 98% of the wildfires larger than 500 ha occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. Further analysis showed that 90% of these wildfires occurred for dead and live fuel moisture content lower than 10% and 100%, respectively. Fast-spreading wildfires were coincident with lower LFMC conditions: 92% of fires with rate of spread larger than 1000 m/h occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. The availability of spatial and temporal LFMC information for Portugal will be relevant for better fire management decision-making and will allow a better understanding of the drivers of large wildfires.
- Survival of prescribed burning treatments to wildfire in PortugalPublication . Davim, David A.; Rossa, Carlos G.; Fernandes, Paulo M.Adoption of prescribed burning is increasing as the treatment chosen to decrease fuel hazard in southern Europe but little is known about how it affects wildfire activity. We assessed the effectiveness of prescribed burning treatments by analysing the survival of treatment units to wildfire in mainland Portugal (2005–2017). We examined the time-dependency of treatment-wildfire encounters through survival analysis, and evaluated treatment effectiveness as the intersection outcome in terms of the unburned fraction of the treatment. Generalized linear modelling supplemented by regression tree analysis was used to attain the second objective. Prescribed fire treatments were frequently (42% of the total number of units) intersected by wildfire, which occurs soon after treatment: the probability of an encounter peaked 2 years after treatment and its cumulative value grew at a diminishing rate with fuel age. Of all treated units, 58% burned entirely upon encounter and the median unburned fraction was 0.01 owing to the prevalence of intersections with large and presumably fast spreading and high intensity wildfires. Larger treatments burned less in area but the effect of wildfire characteristics was largely prevalent over the effect of treatment size. The unburned fraction of treated units seldom responded to fuel age, which we discuss based on biophysical influences, treatment effort, and fire suppression strategy. The high encounter rate but low effectiveness in decreasing burned area within treatments and, seemingly, nil effect for practical purposes on wildfire size indicates that prescribed burning is not impacting wildfire extent in Portugal. Our findings indicate the need to scale-up prescribed burning activity to effectively contribute to decrease wildfire size, but also improvements in fire management planning and operations in general.