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- Financial Structure, Product Market Decisions and Default Risk in an Asymmetric DuopolyPublication . Costa, Magali; Pires, Cesaltina PachecoFinancial and output market decisions are crucial to the success or failure of an organization. In this paper we analyze the equilibrium default risk in a two-stage duopoly model with an uncertain environment, where firms decide their financial structure in the first stage of the game and decide their quantities in the second stage of the game. Using numerical analysis, we analyze the impact of changing the asymmetry in the two firms' marginal costs on the equilibrium default risk. Our results show that as a firm becomes less efficient it is optimal to reduce its debt level and the quantity produced. The reverse is true for the more efficient firm. This behavior implies that although higher marginal cost leads to lower profits, the less efficient firm reduces its default probability due to a more cautious behavior in the financial and product market. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. All rights reserved.
- The Impact of Family Control on Capital Structure on Emerging EconomiesPublication . Lisboa, Inês; Costa, Magali; Burgos, LisbethThis work aims to understand the impact of family control on firms’ capital structure in emerging markets. Multinational firms from Latin American countries are analyzed from 2011 to 2021, using dynamic models. The results show that family firms are singular compared to non-family ones. Family control positively impacts total and long-term debt. Moreover, corporate governance variables are also relevant to explain capital structure. Women’s presence on the board of directors contributes to decrease firms’ indebtedness. Firms’ specific characteristics are also relevant in explaining debt choices. Finally, macroeconomic factors impact the firms’ capital structure differently than developed countries.
- Determinants of default prediction of the tourism sector: the case of Portuguese SMEsPublication . Lisboa, Inês; Costa, Magali; Vouga, BeatrizThis study intends to understand the determinants of default of tourism SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises), i.e., which aspects impact the probability that the company will not comply with its financial obligations. For this purpose, a panel data composed from a sample of 3,945 Portuguese SMEs, over ten years, was analysed. An ex-ante criterion (based on a set of financial ratios) was used to classify firms in default or compliant. This criterion helps to detect financial problems early. Then, in addition to the firm’s specific characteristics, which are the most used determinants, governance variables and macroeconomic factors were analysed in the firm's default prediction logit model. Results prove that the three groups of determinants are relevant to explain firms’ financial difficulties probability. The proposed model presents a success rate (predictive ability to classify as compliant and default) of around 80%. Furthermore, as a test of the robustness of the results, the sample period was divided into two subperiods (2010 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019) with different investment rates in the sector, allowing the conclusion that what determines the default of SMEs in the Portuguese tourism sector depends on the period analysed.
- The impact of Covid-19 on Portuguese Accommodation Sector DefaultPublication . Costa, Magali; Lisboa, Inês; Fortes, FabritonPurpose: Worldwide travel restrictions and other measures to mitigate the pandemic situation caused a period of instability for accommodation companies. The consequences of this global phenomenon are still being explored. This study aims to understand the impact of Covid-19 on the probability of not fulfilling its obligations (default risk) and on its determinants in the Portuguese accommodation sector. Methodology: A Logistic regression on a panel data of 8,688 companies located in Portugal, from 2017 to 2022 was used. Results: The results show that Covid-19 contributed to an increase in the percentage of defaulters. Moreover, the pandemic situation had an impact on what determines financial difficulties. The determinants are different depending on the period analyzed, and the company’s size. Originality: This study adds empirical evidence on the impact of non-payment in the accommodation sector in Portugal and, to the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of literature on the impact of Covid-19.