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Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds

2015-02-06Journal article Restricted access
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datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia
datacite.subject.fosCiências Naturais::Ciências da Terra e do Ambiente
datacite.subject.sdg12:Produção e Consumo Sustentáveis
dc.contributor.authorMourato, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorMoreira, Madalena
dc.contributor.authorCorte-Real, João
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-14T13:24:01Z
dc.date.available2025-11-14T13:24:01Z
dc.date.issued2015-02-06
dc.description.abstractClimate models project a reduction in annual precipitation and an increase in temperature, which may lead to runoff shortages and a consequent water availability reduction, in some Mediterranean regions, such as southern Portugal. The impacts on water availability under different climate change scenarios are assessed using SHETRAN, a physically-based and spatially-distributed hydrological model. SHETRAN is calibrated and validated against daily runoff measurements at outlet and internal sections and against phreatic surfaces using a multi-basin, multi-location and multi-response approach. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency, volume deviation and coefficient of determination ranged, respectively, from 0.58 to 0.76, 0.59 to 0.79 and −9 to 15 %, in the calibration period, and from 0.54 to 0.75, 0.54 to 0.77 and −14 to 12 %, in the validation period. Three GCM and two RCM are used for control (1961–1990) and scenario (2071–2100) periods, under the A2 SRES emission scenario. Observed bias in the climate models’ projected precipitation and temperature are corrected with three bias correction methods. For the scenario period the climate models project a change in precipitation from +1.5 to −65 % and an increase in temperature from +2.7 to +5.9 °C. This trend in climate change projection is reflected in the annual runoff that decreases drastically, between 13 and 90 %, in southern Portugal by the end of the century. The runoff reduction is greater in all watersheds in Autumn and Spring with higher agreement between models and bias correction methods. The runoff decrease seems greater in the Guadiana river basin which is already under significant water stress. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology within the Operational Programme PROTEC. Support was provided under a PhD grant (ref. SFRH/PROTEC/49223/2008) attributed to the first author. The climate and hydrological datasets used in the study were provided by the Portuguese Water Institute (INAG) within the National Hydrological Resources Information System (SNIRH). Climate model data were provided by PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through contract EVk2-CT2001-00132. Thanks to Professor Chris Kilsby for providing the SHETRAN model and to Stefan Blenkinsop and Hayley Fowler (Newcastle University) for providing the climate model data.
dc.identifier.citationMourato, S., Moreira, M. & Corte-Real, J. Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds. Water Resour Manage 29, 2377–2391 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0947-5
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11269-015-0947-5
dc.identifier.issn0920-4741
dc.identifier.issn1573-1650
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/14619
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-015-0947-5
dc.relation.ispartofWater Resources Management
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectCalibration
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectHydrological modelling
dc.subjectMediterranean
dc.subjectSHETRAN
dc.subjectWater availability
dc.titleWater Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watershedseng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage2391
oaire.citation.issue7
oaire.citation.startPage2377
oaire.citation.titleWater Resources Management
oaire.citation.volume29
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameMourato
person.givenNameSandra
person.identifier.ciencia-idC81B-16CD-EDFE
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9545-2584
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56387285400
relation.isAuthorOfPublication66af47bd-4c47-48ec-8f3a-f6ce092514db
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery66af47bd-4c47-48ec-8f3a-f6ce092514db

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