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Water availability in southern portugal for different climate change scenarios subjected to bias correction

2014-10-13Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia do Ambiente
datacite.subject.sdg06:Água Potável e Saneamento
dc.contributor.authorMourato, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorMoreira, Madalena
dc.contributor.authorCorte-Real, João
dc.date.accessioned2026-05-06T13:17:27Z
dc.date.available2026-05-06T13:17:27Z
dc.date.issued2014-10-13
dc.description
dc.description.abstractRegional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. At southern Portugal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temperatures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct input of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. 
 Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Direct Forcing and Hybrid) are analysed and their performances in water availability impact studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variability is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. 
 To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff projections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff decrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shortage that is already experienced. The overall annual reduction varies between -80% and -35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delta Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between -80% and -52%.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology within the Operational Programme PROTEC. Support was provided under a PhD grant (ref. SFRH/PROTEC/49223/2008) granted to the first author. Climate model data have been provided through. Thanks to Stefan Blenkinsop and Hayley Fowler (Newcastle University) for providing the climate model data from the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through contract EVk2-СТ2001-00132.
dc.description.sponsorshipFCT (Portugal) e União Europeia (via projeto PRUDENCE).
dc.identifier.citationMourato, S., Moreira, M., & Corte-Real, J. (2014). Water availability in southern portugal for different climate change scenarios subjected to bias correction. Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering, 8(1), 109-117. https://doi.org/10.4090/juee.2014.v8n1.109117
dc.identifier.doi10.4090/juee.2014.v8n1.109117
dc.identifier.issn1982-3932
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/16239
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherJournal of Urban and Environmental Engineering
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://periodicos.ufpb.br/index.php/juee/article/view/16453
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Urban and Environmental Engineering
dc.rights.uriN/A
dc.subjectBias correction
dc.subjectclimate change models
dc.subjecthydrological modelling
dc.subjectsouthern Portugal
dc.titleWater availability in southern portugal for different climate change scenarios subjected to bias correctioneng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage117
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPage109
oaire.citation.titleournal of Urban and Environmental Engineering
oaire.citation.volume8
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameMourato
person.givenNameSandra
person.identifier.ciencia-idC81B-16CD-EDFE
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9545-2584
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56387285400
relation.isAuthorOfPublication66af47bd-4c47-48ec-8f3a-f6ce092514db
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery66af47bd-4c47-48ec-8f3a-f6ce092514db

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