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A Near-Real-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National Level

2025-04-30Journal article Open access
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datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia
datacite.subject.sdg09:Indústria, Inovação e Infraestruturas
dc.contributor.authorBenali, Akli
dc.contributor.authorBaldassarre, Giuseppe
dc.contributor.authorLoureiro, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorBriquemont, Florian
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Paulo M.
dc.contributor.authorRossa, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorFigueira, Rui
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-31T15:03:58Z
dc.date.available2025-07-31T15:03:58Z
dc.date.issued2025-04-30
dc.descriptionArticle number - 178
dc.descriptionThis article belongs to the Section Fire Research at the Science–Policy–Practitioner Interface
dc.description.abstractLive fuel moisture content (LFMC) significantly influences fire activity and behavior over different spatial and temporal scales. The ability to estimate LFMC is important to improve our capability to predict when and where large wildfires may occur. Currently, there is a gap in providing reliable near-real-time LFMC estimates which can contribute to better operational decision-making. The objective of this work was to develop near-real-time LFMC estimates for operational purposes in Portugal. We modelled LFMC using Random Forests for Portugal using a large set of potential predictor variables. We validated the model and analyzed the relationships between estimated LFMC and both fire size and behavior. The model predicted LFMC with an R2 of 0.78 and an RMSE of 12.82%, and combined six variables: drought code, day-of-year and satellite vegetation indices. The model predicted well the temporal LFMC variability across most of the sampling sites. A clear relationship between LFMC and fire size was observed: 98% of the wildfires larger than 500 ha occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. Further analysis showed that 90% of these wildfires occurred for dead and live fuel moisture content lower than 10% and 100%, respectively. Fast-spreading wildfires were coincident with lower LFMC conditions: 92% of fires with rate of spread larger than 1000 m/h occurred with LFMC lower than 100%. The availability of spatial and temporal LFMC information for Portugal will be relevant for better fire management decision-making and will allow a better understanding of the drivers of large wildfires.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by project FUELSAT (PCIF/GRF/0116/2019) funded by the Funda\u00E7\u00E3o para a Ci\u00EAncia e a Tecnologia I.P. (FCT). The Forest Research Centre was funded by FCT (UIDB/00239, Centro de Estudos Florestais). AB was funded by FCT through a CEEC contract (CEECIND/03799/2018/CP1563/CT0003). P.M.F and C.R. were supported by FCT under the projects UID/04033: Centro de Investiga\u00E7\u00E3o e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambienteis e Biol\u00F3gicas and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0126/2020).
dc.identifier.citationBenali, A.; Baldassarre, G.; Loureiro, C.; Briquemont, F.; Fernandes, P.M.; Rossa, C.; Figueira, R. A NearReal-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National Level. Fire 2025, 8, 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8050178
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/fire8050178
dc.identifier.issn2571-6255
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/13827
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.relationIntegração de dados de diferentes satelites para mapear combustiveis florestais: o papel da detecção remota para uma efectiva gestão dos combustiveis florestais
dc.relationChemical Process Engineering and Forest Products Research Centre
dc.relationTowards integrated fire management in Portugal: closing the loop between fire prevention, suppression and impacts.
dc.relationCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences
dc.relationInstitute for innovation, capacity building and sustainability of agri-food production
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/8/5/178
dc.relation.ispartofFire
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectFire size
dc.subjectFire management
dc.subjectFire behavior
dc.subjectNear-real time
dc.subjectFire danger
dc.titleA Near-Real-Time Operational Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) Product to Support Decision-Making at the National Leveleng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleIntegração de dados de diferentes satelites para mapear combustiveis florestais: o papel da detecção remota para uma efectiva gestão dos combustiveis florestais
oaire.awardTitleChemical Process Engineering and Forest Products Research Centre
oaire.awardTitleTowards integrated fire management in Portugal: closing the loop between fire prevention, suppression and impacts.
oaire.awardTitleCentre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences
oaire.awardTitleInstitute for innovation, capacity building and sustainability of agri-food production
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/13824
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00102%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/13825
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04033%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.8/13826
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.titleFire
oaire.citation.volume8
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamCEEC IND 2018
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameRossa
person.givenNameCarlos
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6308-4235
person.identifier.scopus-author-id26023715100
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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