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Bistability of Evolutionary Stable Vaccination Strategies in the Reinfection SIRI Model
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Resumo(s)
We use the reinfection SIRI epidemiological model to analyze the impact of education programs and vaccine scares on individuals decisions to vaccinate or not. The presence of the reinfection provokes the novelty of the existence of three Nash equilibria for the same level of the morbidity relative risk instead of a single Nash equilibrium as occurs in the SIR model studied by Bauch and Earn (PNAS 101:13391–13394, 2004). The existence of three Nash equilibria, with two of them
being evolutionary stable, introduces two scenarios with relevant and opposite fea tures for the same level of the morbidity relative risk: the low-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a low probability; and the high-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a high probability. We introduce the evolutionary vaccination dynamics for the SIRI model and we prove that it is bistable. The bistability of the evolutionary dynamics indicates that the damage provoked by false scares on the vaccination perceived mor bidity risks can be much higher and much more persistent than in the SIR model.
Furthermore, the vaccination education programs to be efficient they need to imple ment a mechanism to suddenly increase the vaccination coverage level.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Vaccination Reinfection SIRI model Nash equilibrium ESS Vaccination dynamics
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Martins J, Pinto A. Bistability of Evolutionary Stable Vaccination Strategies in the Reinfection SIRI Model. Bull Math Biol. 2017 Apr;79(4):853-883. doi: 10.1007/s11538-017-0257-6. Epub 2017 Feb 23. PMID: 28233172
Editora
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Licença CC
Sem licença CC