Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences

Publicações

Survival of prescribed burning treatments to wildfire in Portugal

Publication . Davim, David A.; Rossa, Carlos G.; Fernandes, Paulo M.

Adoption of prescribed burning is increasing as the treatment chosen to decrease fuel hazard in southern Europe but little is known about how it affects wildfire activity. We assessed the effectiveness of prescribed burning treatments by analysing the survival of treatment units to wildfire in mainland Portugal (2005–2017). We examined the time-dependency of treatment-wildfire encounters through survival analysis, and evaluated treatment effectiveness as the intersection outcome in terms of the unburned fraction of the treatment. Generalized linear modelling supplemented by regression tree analysis was used to attain the second objective. Prescribed fire treatments were frequently (42% of the total number of units) intersected by wildfire, which occurs soon after treatment: the probability of an encounter peaked 2 years after treatment and its cumulative value grew at a diminishing rate with fuel age. Of all treated units, 58% burned entirely upon encounter and the median unburned fraction was 0.01 owing to the prevalence of intersections with large and presumably fast spreading and high intensity wildfires. Larger treatments burned less in area but the effect of wildfire characteristics was largely prevalent over the effect of treatment size. The unburned fraction of treated units seldom responded to fuel age, which we discuss based on biophysical influences, treatment effort, and fire suppression strategy. The high encounter rate but low effectiveness in decreasing burned area within treatments and, seemingly, nil effect for practical purposes on wildfire size indicates that prescribed burning is not impacting wildfire extent in Portugal. Our findings indicate the need to scale-up prescribed burning activity to effectively contribute to decrease wildfire size, but also improvements in fire management planning and operations in general.

2021-08-01Artigo científico

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Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal

Publication . Andrade, Cristina; Mourato, Sandra; Ramos, João

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree-days along with HDD + CDD were computed from an ensemble of seven high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040, and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results predict a decrease in HDDs most significant under RCP8.5. Conversely, it is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios. The decrease in HDDs is projected to be higher than the increase in CDDs hinting to an increase in the energy demand to cool internal environments in Portugal. Statistically significant linear CDD trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. Towards 2070, higher(lower) CDD (HDD and HDD + CDD) anomaly amplitudes are depicted, mainly under RCP8.5. Within the five NUTS II regions projections revealed for 2041-2070 a decrease in heating requirements for Algarve and Lisbon Area higher in Faro, Lisboa and Setúbal whereas for North and Center regions results predicts an increase in cooling energy demand mainly in Bragança, Vila Real, Braga, Viana do Castelo, Porto and Guarda, higher under RCP8.5.

2021-06-01Artigo científico

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Palavras-chave

Climate change adaptation,Agro-industry co-products valorization,Technological and intelligent systems,Socio-ecological systems, Agricultural sciences

Entidade financiadora

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.

Programa de financiamento

Concurso de avaliação no âmbito do Programa Plurianual de Financiamento de Unidades de I&D (2017/2018) - Financiamento Base

Número da atribuição

UIDB/04033/2020